Pakistan’s fertility rate drops to 3.6 live births per woman in three decades: UN

Pakistan is expected to become third most populous country by 2050

Web Desk

04 Feb, 2025

Pakistan

Pakistan’s fertility rate has decreased from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 per woman in 2024, according to the World Fertility Report 2024 from the United Nations (UN).

The report showed that in 2024, around 1.8 billion people, or 22 per cent of the global population, resided in 63 countries and areas that are in the early or intermediate stages of demographic transition and are expected to achieve low fertility rates after 2054.

Pakistan is expected to become the third most populous country by 2050, outpacing the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.

The report stated that Pakistan’s early childbearing is less prevalent than in other countries, with a rate of 39 per 1,000. As a result, the scenario of a rapid decline in the adolescent birth rate has a minimal impact on the future number of births, reducing it by only six per cent by 2054.

The UN forecasted that Pakistan’s population will surpass 380 million by 2050, with the fertility rate anticipated to decrease to 2.5 by 2054.

“Three other country examples … had fertility levels still above six live births per woman in 1994, declining by 2024 to 3.6 in Pakistan, 3.9 in Ethiopia and 4.4 in Nigeria,” the UN report stated.

“Reducing growth in the numbers of live births in the future would allow governments and families to allocate resources more efficiently to invest in children and adolescent health and well-being,” the report added.

“Governments should also strengthen laws and enforcement mechanisms to protect the rights of girls and women,” the report suggested.

The overall population growth rate in Pakistan accelerated by 0.15% to 2.55% in the past five-year from 2.4% between 1998 and 2017, according to the results of the country’s first-ever digital Population and Housing Census 2023 on August 6, 2023.

Former British high commissioner Christian Turner observed on July 19, 2020, that Pakistan’s population was going to double in the next 30 years, putting a huge burden on its resources. He pointed out the situation demands a proper response to address the issue.

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