The federal government’s effort to pass a constitutional amendment bill regarding the higher judiciary has turned into a complex numbers game. While the government claims to have the required support, fulfilling the necessary vote count appears increasingly difficult.

The government aims to introduce a significant constitutional amendment related to the higher judiciary, which requires a two-thirds majority in the lower house—specifically, 224 votes out of a total of 336 members.

Sources stated that the government is facing considerable challenges in securing the necessary votes, resulting in delays in the proposed legislation.

There are 312 members present in the National Assembly, but 24 seats—comprising reserved seats for women and minorities—are either disputed or vacant pending notification. This situation complicates the government’s efforts to achieve the required majority for the constitutional amendments.

The government’s total membership in the NA stands at 213, with the Pakistan Muslim League-N contributing 111 members, the Pakistan Peoples Party providing 68, Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan with 22, Pakistan Muslim League-Q with five, Istehkam Pakistan Party with four, and one member each from Pakistan Muslim League-Z, National Party, and Balochistan Awami Party.

On the other hand, the opposition comprises 101 members, including 80 from the Sunni Ittehad Council, six independents, eight members from Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-F, and one member each from Balochistan National Party, Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen, and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party.

If JUI-F decides to support the bill, the government’s numbers will rise to 221, leaving them in need of three additional members to secure the necessary two-thirds majority for the constitutional amendments. This dynamic adds further complexity to the ongoing negotiations within the assembly.

If any member of the SIC or another opposition party votes in favour of the constitutional bill, they will be disqualified, although their vote will still be counted. But if any of the eight independent members sitting in the opposition choose to support the government, they will not face disqualification. This group includes PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar and Leader of Opposition Omar Ayub Khan, along with six others: Ali Asghar Khan, Aslam Ghumman, Usman Ali, Zahoor Hussain Qureshi, Aurangzeb Kachhi, and Mubarak Zeb.

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In the by-election in Rahim Yar Khan, if the PPP emerges victorious, the combined numbers with JUI-F would elevate the government’s total to 222, needing to sway only two independent members.

The situation is poised to become clearer in the coming two days. Sources added that the government is planning to call a NA session on Saturday, where the proposed constitutional amendment may be presented.