Fitch Ratings, a global credit rating agency, has predicted that the current Pakistani government will remain in power for the next 18 months. The report suggests that if a change in government occurs, it will not be followed by elections but rather by a technocratic administration. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently in custody, is expected to remain incarcerated in the near future, Fitch added.

However, following the analysis many questions have been raised about how Fitch made such a prediction.

Sana Tofiq, a financial analyst at Arif Habib limited, explained to BBC that rating agencies like Fitch gather information through meetings with State Bank officials and other institutions, collecting economic reports and data. They analyze this information and consider relevant news reports before publishing their assessments.

Dr. Ashfaq Hasan, an economic affairs expert, stated that rating agencies have their own sources of information beyond government meetings and data. He believes Fitch’s prediction about a technocratic administration likely stems from their own analysis and sources.

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Dr. Najib Khaqan, a former spokesperson and economic expert, raised concerns about Fitch’s statement, demanding clarification from the Pakistani Ministry of Finance on how the agency reached its conclusion. He argued that such comments on a country’s internal affairs are inappropriate from a rating agency.

Aisha Ghaus Pasha, former Minister of State for Finance, countered the criticism, stating that Fitch’s prediction is not a political analysis but a reflection of the economic reality that political stability is crucial for economic stability.

Arsalan Asif Soomro, another economic expert, echoed Sana Tofiq’s view, emphasizing that political commentary, analysis, and predictions are inherent in ratings, which are subject to improvement. He cited the example of Pakistan’s political instability following Imran Khan’s removal through a no-confidence vote and the subsequent caretaker government. This period saw a decline in Pakistan’s political rating by international institutions, which improved after elections and the IMF agreement.