El Niño conditions are expected to develop as early as May, potentially driving above-normal temperatures across much of the world, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organisation.

The agency said climate models now strongly indicate the return of El Niño during the May to July period, following a phase of neutral conditions earlier this year.

It warned the event could intensify in the months ahead and may reach strong levels.

El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that shifts between warmer (El Niño) and cooler (La Niña) phases every two to seven years.

The phenomenon raises sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting trade winds and influencing global weather patterns.

Meteorologists say El Niño events can significantly affect rainfall and temperature worldwide, often linked to droughts, floods, heatwaves and disruptions in agriculture.

The most recent El Niño, which lasted from May 2023 to March 2024, contributed to 2024 being recorded as the hottest year on record.

The latest update predicts a “rapid warming trend” between May and July, with higher-than-normal temperatures likely across regions including southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and northern Africa.

However, rainfall impacts remain uncertain in some areas, including parts of North America, due to mixed signals in current forecasts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also projected a rising likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with estimates ranging above 60 per cent through mid-year and a smaller chance of a stronger event later in the year.

A revised outlook from the World Meteorological Organisation is expected in late May.