The global ratings agency Fitch has forecasted that technocrats would come to power in Pakistan if the incumbent government changes as “there would not be new elections” in the South Asian country.

In its country risk report on Pakistan, the agency said the government was expected to remain in power for the next 18 months.

This comes after a flurry of political and legal developments in the country. Imran Khan and his party got major relief from the Supreme Court in the recent past when an Islamabad judge overturned his illegal marriage conviction while the top court awarded the former ruling party more parliamentary seats.

Both cases were considered a major blow to the coalition government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as many believed the decision would end the treasury benches majority in the National Assembly.

The PML-N government has decided to ban Imran Khan’s party but clarified that a final decision would be taken after consulting coalition partners. The party was also considering treason case against Khan, former president Arif Alvi, and former National Assembly deputy speaker Qasim Suri.

Amidst this, Fitch said that the political situation in the country has the potential to “derail the economic recovery process.”

The February elections in Pakistan saw significant victories for the independent candidates who supported PTI, it said and added that protests in different cities could potentially impact economic activities.

The report highlights that external payment pressures pose an economic risk for Pakistan while agricultural risks include floods and droughts. The government was expected to implement comprehensive economic reforms in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund.

The report states that the government was paving the way for an IMF programme to address Pakistan’s challenging economic decisions. By the end of the current fiscal year, the inflation rate in Pakistan might decline and the State Bank of Pakistan was expected to reduce interest rates.

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Fitch predicted that by the end of the fiscal year, the SBP was likely to bring the interest rate down to 14%. The government has set ambitious fiscal targets in its budget, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit from 7.4% to 6.7%.

The report also forecasts that the US dollar would reach Rs290 by the end of the current year and Rs310 by 2025. The report considered the achievement of the budget targets under the IMF programme to be challenging.