PMLN, PPP, MQMP, PMLQ, IPP and BAP announced a six-party plan for the formation of government in the centre on Tuesday night as the leaders gathered at the residence of PMLQ leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.

This is not exactly a ruling alliance because PPP says it will not join the government but has offered its 54 votes to elect someone from PMLN – most likely Shehabz Sharif – as the prime minister.

PMLN’s 75 seats, PPP’s 54, MQMP’s 17, PMLQ’s 3, and IPP’s 2 seats along with one seat of BAP come to 152.

PMLN, PPP, MQMP, and PMLQ will also get a share in the reserved seats for women and minorities.

Women’s reserved seats in the National Assembly from Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan will likely go to this six-party group, though most of the 10 women reserved seats from KP could go to PTI if PTI-backed candidates joined MWM as the party has announced.

Under Article 51 of the constitution, political parties win reserved seats based on their National Assembly seats in a given province and the reserved seats quota for that province. Punjab has 31 women seats, KP 10, Sindh 14, and Balochistan 4.

Since MWM has won a single seat from KP and technically it will be MWM and not PTI that will emerge as the biggest party in the National Assembly, it could only get reserved women seats from KP and nother other provinces.

PTI has 39 seats from KP and with one MWM seat, the number comes to 40. It will allow the party to secure 8 of the 10 women seats.

Similarly, PTI or MWM could get most of the minority seats that usually go to the three largest groups in the National Assembly without any geographic restrictions.

Out of 70 reserved seats, around 58 could go to the six-party group and 12 to PTI/MWM.

This will bring the total number of the ruling group to 210. It is a tad short of the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution.

In a 336-member house, the two-thirds majority threshold lies at 112. So the ruling group will be there but not exactly there. But with a supportive JUI-F – which has so far indicated that it will not join the ruling group — the PMLN-led government will be able to amend the constitution.