After managing to execute his plan of dissolving assemblies in Punjab and KP, Imran Khan has hinted that he is in the mood to go on the offensive against the PDM government in the center.

The PTI is apparently planning to give the federal government a taste of its own medicine by asking PM Shehbaz Sharif to take a vote of confidence. But with PTI out of the assemblies and the PDM alliance holding up, whether the return will even matter is worth exploring.

How will a vote of confidence be initiated?

Just like the governor called for a confidence vote in Punjab, the president can call on the prime minister to prove a secure majority in the assembly. The president belongs to the PTI, so that part is sorted. PM Shehbaz Sharif will have to prove that he has the support of at least 172 members of the lower house of parliament.

The PTI has resigned from the assembly, at least tendered their resignations even if they are not officially accepted yet, so the PTI chief has floated the idea of returning to the assemblies. But if the onus of proving numbers is on the government, why should the PTI return to the assembly.

The answer is this: for the second time within a year, PTI’s dissident members might spoil the game in favour of the PDM. Sources also say that the PM House has asked the assembly for the latest party position so it can start preparing for any possible moves by the PTI. So let’s look at the party position in the assembly.

Government Numbers

Opposition Numbers

There are 11 seats in the assembly that are currently unoccupied, seven of these were won by Imran Khan on a by-election on October 16. Three members Mahmood Moulvi, Roheela Hamid and Nadeem Khan have not taken oath as members. Jaffar Leghari’s death has also left a seat empty.

With all allies on board, the PDM government has 181 members, nine more than the number required. So unless a party breaks away from the PDM, it should secure the required numbers. And with the MQM-P having calmed down after its recent storm, any breakaway seems unlikely.

Which way will the dissidents swing?

The PTI is mulling the option of returning to assemblies for the sole reason to prevent its own dissident members from strengthening the PDM. Now that a majority of the party has been sitting out of the assembly, the decision of where the party votes has shifted from Imran Khan to the party’s new parliamentary leader: Raja Riaz.

Sources say that the PTI has even deliberated over the option of sending enough members to the house to overcome the 21 dissidents, so Raja Riaz’s directions to vote can be made non-binding. However, removing him as parliamentary leader will take more than just an immediate appearance.

While the PTI’s maneuvers to get the party’s parliamentary choices back from Raja Riaz might be the most interesting development in the coming days, it is worth remembering that unless some members of the government’s 181 clearly break away or abstain, removing PM Sharif’s government will be an uphill task. Meanwhile, it will also be interesting to see if the seats PTI has won but not occupied will become a factor.