UK public inflation expectations surged after Iran war

Published 12 Jun, 2026 02:04pm 1 min read

The British public’s expectations for inflation in ​the long term rose to a ‌record high last month after the US-Israeli war on Iran sent ​energy prices soaring, the ​Bank of England’s quarterly inflation attitudes ⁠survey showed on Friday.

The ​public’s median expectation for the ​rate of inflation in the year ahead increased to 4% from 3.2% ​in February.

For inflation in ​five years’ time, expectations rose to ‌3.9% ⁠in May from 3.7% in February - their highest level since BoE records for this time ​series began ​in ⁠2009 and far above the BoE’s target for consumer ​price inflation of 2.0%.

BoE ​policymakers ⁠monitor the public’s inflation expectations carefully for signs that ⁠price ​pressures are becoming ​permanently embedded in consumer behaviour.

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