Oil prices drop after Trump cancels attack on Iran to seek nuclear deal

Updated 03 Aug, 2026 03:53pm 4 min read
Sunset clouds glow over pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau region, Kazakhstan. -- Reuters
Sunset clouds glow over pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau region, Kazakhstan. -- Reuters

Oil prices fell more than $4 a barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump held off a fresh attack on Iran as he sought a quick deal that would halt Tehran’s ​nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell $4.23, or 4.8%, to $83.70 by 1011 ​GMT, having retraced some losses from a three-week low hit earlier in ⁠the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $79.60 a barrel, down $5.07, or 6%. Both benchmarks ​marked their biggest daily falls in absolute and percentage terms since last Monday.

Both contracts had jumped ​more than 20% last month after fighting between the US and Iran resumed, and attacks on several tankers around Oman heightened security concerns, deterring shippers from entering the Gulf to load oil.

In a sign of de-escalation, Trump said late ​on Saturday on his Truth Social platform that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had ​asked for time to complete a deal that would lead to “the Immediate, Complete and Total” reopening of the Strait ‌and “an ⁠end to Iran’s nuclear threat”. Details remain unclear.

CAN A DEAL HAPPEN?

“The bigger focus is whether this week turns into a rinse and repeat of last week — with hopes of a deal collapsing as Iran digs in its heels and continues to leverage its control over the Strait,” IG market ​analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Two ​tankers laden with Saudi ⁠oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait out of the Red Sea over the weekend, but traffic both in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb ​slowed, shipping data showed.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations has reported three more ​tanker attacks ⁠since Saturday.

On Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, approved an oil production quota increase of around 188,000 barrels per day from September.

Export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and ⁠Kazakhstan, ​caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, have meant successive monthly ​OPEC+ hikes over most of this year have not translated into extra oil on the market and have had little ​impact on prices.

Japanese yen firm

The Japanese yen firmed 0.5% to 156.47 per US dollar after a sudden move ​earlier in the day put traders on alert for another bout of intervention.

Japan and the US conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention and will not hesitate to take further action, ​Japan’s finance ministry said on Monday, confirming a rare bilateral action to halt the yen’s slide to fresh 40-year lows.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the United States would consider increasing in coming months the size of the Federal Reserve’s repurchase facility providing temporary dollar liquidity, calling the tool an “important backstop”.

“Bessent’s comments arguably carry more weight than the intervention itself,” said Matt ​Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX.

“It feels like a safe bet that the Japanese yen has troughed for the year. The words ‘joint intervention’ carries a lot of ​weight in these markets and is a term rarely used.”

Preceding the announcement on the joint action, Trump said on Sunday the United States was helping Japan to prop up the yen as ‌a sign ⁠of friendship and to help the world economy.

“They have a weakening yen, and they wanted a little bit of help. And we’re always there for Japan,” Trump said.

Tokyo’s solo intervention conducted between late April and early May caused only a brief yen rebound, while a rate hike in June by the Bank of Japan provided little boost, underscoring the challenge facing policymakers amid rising oil prices and a wide interest rate differential against other major economies.

The yen had been rooted near 40-year lows of ​163.99 per US dollar in recent weeks ​before the latest bout of interventions, with ⁠net short positions on the yen of roughly $12.5 billion, the highest in two years, data from a US regulator showed.

“They are clearly determined to make a solid effort in strengthening the yen as the billions of dollars they have spent and ​joint moves have proved,” said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global.

“However, there will need to be a change ​in the underlying fundamentals ⁠for these moves to be sustainable. The market will challenge these moves once they feel the action has been completed.”

The action and comments from Bessent repeating his calls for further interest-rate hikes by the BOJ have put monetary policy in focus.

The 2-year JGB yield, which is most sensitive to near-term monetary policy moves, briefly hit 1.545% on Monday, ⁠the highest since ​1995, as markets priced in the chance of an early rate hike.

Meanwhile, the drop in oil ​prices led US Treasury yields lower.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 3.7 basis points to 5.238%, easing away from a 19-year high it touched last week.

It had jumped 372 basis points ​in July as investors grappled with confusion around the Iran war and the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve.

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