Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.1% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in November 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday, a reading higher than the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5-6%.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.2% in October 2025. The CPI stood at 4.9% in November 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.4% in November 2025 as compared to an increase of 1.8% in the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in November 2024.

This takes the 5MFY26 inflation reading at 5.01% against 7.88% in 5MFY25.

CPI inflation (Urban) increased by 6.1% on a year-on-year basis in November 2025, as compared to 6.0% in the previous month and 5.2% in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.5% in November 2025 as compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in November 2024.

CPI inflation (Rural) increased by 6.3% on a year-on-year basis in November 2025, as compared to an increase of 6.6% in the previous month and 4.3% in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.2% in November 2025 as compared to an increase of 2.3% in the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in November 2024.

In its monthly outlook released last week, the Ministry of Finance has projected that inflation readings to remain in the range of 5% to 6% in November 2025, reporting that the “expected inflationary pressure is building up” again in the country.

 “Inflation is expected to remain in the range of 5-6% in November, due to pressures on food prices and agricultural output,” the Finance Ministry said.

However, brokerage houses expected the inflation reading to notch up higher.

Topline Securities expected inflation to clock in at 6.5–7.0% YoY, reflecting pressures from food supply disruptions and energy price adjustments.

Topline attributed the increase to “the aftereffects of floods and the closure of the Afghan border in the country, affecting food supplies”.

Similarly, JS Global, another brokerage house, expects headline inflation to clock in at 6.3% YoY in November 2025, following an uptick in food inflation, which is projected to rise 7.2% YoY.

Last week, Jameel Ahmad, Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), said that inflation has not only aligned with the central bank’s forecasts but is also “expected to remain within the 5-7% target band over the medium term”.