Pakistan’s headline inflation rose to 10.9% year-on-year in April 2026, returning to double digits and exceeding official projections, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Friday.

The reading marks a sharp increase from 7.3% recorded in March, and comes in above the Ministry of Finance’s forecast range of 8–9% for the month.

On a month-on-month basis, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.5% in April, compared to a 1.2% rise in March. During the first ten months of the current fiscal year, average inflation stood at 6.19%, up from 4.73% in the same period last year.

Urban inflation rose to 11.1% year-on-year, while rural inflation reached 10.6%, reflecting broad-based price pressures across the country.

The increase was largely driven by a surge in food and energy costs. Prices of tomatoes jumped by 57%, fresh vegetables by over 40%, eggs by 14.3%, onions by 9%, and potatoes by 4% during the month. Meanwhile, liquid hydrocarbons rose by 38.3%, transport services by 27.8%, and motor fuel prices by 18.2%.

Some relief was observed in wheat, fish, and fruit prices, which recorded slight declines.

Analysts attributed the spike to a low base effect and persistent supply-side pressures linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher retail fuel and LPG prices also contributed to the increase.

The inflation uptick prompted the State Bank of Pakistan to raise its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.5% earlier this week, marking the first rate hike in three years.

The Finance Division had earlier projected inflation to remain in single digits, citing expectations of easing pressures, but acknowledged risks stemming from global supply disruptions.