US President Donald Trump is confronting one of the most consequential challenges of his second term as negotiations between Washington and Tehran begin in Oman, aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program.

The talks open against a backdrop of heightened military tensions, domestic political pressures, and a volatile Middle East.

Trump’s threats to punish Iran for cracking down on protesters and to prevent the reconstitution of its nuclear capabilities carry weight, given his extensive military actions over the past year in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Nigeria, Venezuela, and against alleged drug traffickers in the Pacific and Caribbean.

However, with his approval ratings dipping below 40% and the midterm elections looming, Trump faces the difficult task of balancing his domestic standing with the complex military and geopolitical questions surrounding Iran.

The US president believes his unpredictability strengthens his negotiating position, but analysts caution that achieving the decisive victory he seeks may be unlikely.

Trump has deployed a substantial naval force to the region and retains military options that could inflict significant damage, reinforcing the pressure on Iran’s leadership.

Iran, meanwhile, faces internal challenges that could make it vulnerable.

The country is contending with a leadership succession crisis, a deepening political legitimacy problem, and weakened regional proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Analysts say these factors could create a rare window for the US to pressure Tehran.

Military action, however, carries serious risks. Any attempt to decapitate the Iranian regime or degrade its military capacity would likely require multi-day air campaigns with potential civilian casualties.

A longer engagement could destabilise the region and impact domestic support, while Gulf allies have expressed concerns about the consequences of an American strike.

Diplomacy also faces hurdles. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasised that the US aims to address Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities, sponsorship of armed groups, and treatment of its citizens.

Iran has indicated it is willing to discuss only nuclear issues, complicating prospects for a comprehensive agreement.

Trump’s previous military actions, including the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, have reinforced his strongman image.

Yet critics warn that any failure to secure a deal or escalation into conflict could erode credibility both internationally and at home, particularly amid war-weary voters concerned about the economy and domestic issues.

As the Oman talks commence, Trump faces a delicate balancing act: demonstrating strength to Tehran while managing domestic opinion, maintaining alliances, and avoiding the pitfalls of a prolonged or costly conflict.

Analysts note that any outcome—military or diplomatic—will significantly shape his legacy and influence US-Iran relations for years to come.