Israel has pledged to respond to Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday, which included over 180 ballistic missiles and was mostly intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems.

Much has been speculated about the form Israel’s response to Iran could take. According to various analysts, Israel could target the following places in Iran.

Iran’s nuclear installations

Some analysts suggested that Israel will likely respond by striking Iranian military facilities, particularly those involved in the production of ballistic missiles similar to those used in Tuesday’s assaults. Israel may also target Iranian air defense systems and missile launch sites.

Washington has accused Tehran of providing short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the Ukraine conflict, a claim both nations deny. Analysts believe that such actions would be viewed as a proportional response to Iran’s attack.

Iran’s nuclear facilities

Strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could hinder Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, as its nuclear program is dispersed across various sites, some of which are underground. However, a significant assault on its nuclear infrastructure could lead to serious repercussions, including Iran accelerating its efforts to build a nuclear weapon. Washington has stated it would not back such actions by Israel.

A retired US Army officer and former member of the US National Security Council under both Republican and Democratic administrations, Richard Hooker, noted that while an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites is a “distinct possibility,” it is not very likely, as such an action could prompt a dramatic response from the Iranian leadership.

The Islamic Republic maintains that it has never had a nuclear weapons program nor intends to develop one. The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, along with US intelligence, has determined that Iran actively pursued a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003. Experts warn that following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb within weeks.

Iran’s petroleum production infrastructure

Israel could also target Iran’s oil industry, which would negatively impact its economy. Such an attack might provoke Iran to retaliate by targeting oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations. This could lead to a spike in fuel prices, a significant issue in U.S. campaigns, just before the upcoming elections for president and Congress on November 5.

David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official now with the U.S. National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center, expressed uncertainty about whether an increase in global oil prices would deter Israel. He suggested that Israel might actually see a rise in oil prices as advantageous for former President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently shown more alignment with Trump’s Republicans than with Democrats.

Military and cyber possibilities

A military response is seen as the most probable course of action, but there are alternatives that don’t involve missile strikes or commando operations. U.S. President Joe Biden has stated that he would impose additional sanctions on Iran. Current U.S. sanctions already restrict nearly all trade with Iran, freeze the assets of its government in the U.S., and prohibit American foreign assistance and arms sales.

Analysts suggest that Israel might also leverage its cyber warfare capabilities in response to the Iranian attacks. Israel’s recent large-scale cyber assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon highlighted the role of its secretive Unit 8200, the Israel Defense Forces’ specialized cyber warfare and intelligence unit, which Western security sources indicated played a part in planning the operation.

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