The year 2003 saw a massive increase in gold prices across the world. Now the World Gold Council has issued an outlook for gold prices in the year 2024, offering the possible scenarios for future trends.

Internationally the gold price experienced a decline throughout the year 2022, dropping to around $1650 per ounce in October 2022. In November 2020, the prices took an upward trajectory and crossed the $2,000 mark in April 2023.

Gold prices hovered around $2,000 throughout 2023 prompting more people to invest in the precious metal. In Pakistan, gold experienced a much steeper rise on the back of increasing US dollar value against the Pakistani rupee.

The World Gold Council, which is the most influential organisation in the gold industry, in its 2024 outlook has presented three scenarios for gold prices in the next year.

It has linked the projected demand for gold with the performance of the US economy and elections in several countries in 2024.

According to the WGC, there is a 45% to 65% possibility that the American economy will experience a slowdown or ‘soft landing’ in 2024. If that happened the demand for gold would be ‘flat with upside potential’. This means that gold prices will slightly increase.

There is also a second possibility with a 25% to 55% probability rate that the US economy will experience a significant slowdown or ‘hard landing.’ Under this scenario, the demand for gold will increase and prices will go up.

The WGC says that given the ‘heightened’ geopolitical tensions in a key election year for many major economies combined with continued Central Bank buying could provide additional support for gold.’

The WGC has also projected a third scenario with a 5% to 10% probability rate suggesting that the US economy will not experience any slowdown. If that happened the demand for gold would be flat with downside pressure on prices. This means that prices will decrease. However, with a low probability rate this is not likely to happen.

The World Gold Council says that a global recession is also on the cards and it would ‘encourage many investors to hold affective hedges such as gold in the portfolios’. So, there are chances that gold prices will increase in the year 2024.