Pakistan’s GDP growth is going to be 0.5%, according to the IMF. So what does this mean for us this year?

Habib University Professor Aqdas Afzal, who has a PhD in Economics and Social Science, from the University of Missouri, spoke to Dawn News about what comes next.

What does this GDP number mean for average Pakistanis?

Prof Afzal: These are really worrying numbers, that GDP growth will be 0.5%. It means poverty will go up. Pakistani economists are saying that 2 crore people will sink below the poverty line this fiscal year.

Pakistan number of unemployed people will cross 10 million. So that means 30 million people or 15% of the population will be in crisis. No job growth, poverty will go up.

I’ve never read or heard about it being this bad.

What will be the impact on society?

Prof Afzal: Crime will go up. We see anecdotal evidence it’s going up. People won’t be able to send their children to school. People won’t be able to get the proper calories (eat properly) so diseases will go up. This is what will happen when the economy starts to sink.

What should young people do?

Prof Afzal: New jobs will not be created. When young people graduate they want jobs. But Pakistan’s economy means you won’t be able to rely on a job. We’ll have to see small business starting. Not everyone can go abroad.

Ishaq Dar and the IMF met and we keep hearing we’ll get the bailout. But even if this happens and we get money from the UAE how long will it last?

Prof Afzal: Analysts are saying when this program ends Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves will still not be in a comfortable position and we’ll probably need another bailout.

In the next three years, Pakistan has to repay $77 billion of its debt. Remittances have recently gone up, but overall there has been a decline in people sending money back home.

In the next three years or more, the recession and dark clouds will stay.