No government, no matter how rich, could have prevented this disaster, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst has said, referring to the floods in Pakistan that have displaced 33 million people and submerged a third of the country.

Aaj News spoke to Michael Kugelman, who heads the South Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, about the causes and response. He recently wrote a piece in Just Security, an online forum for the rigorous analysis of national security, foreign policy, and rights, in which he outlines his reasons why long term international climate assistance to Pakistan is a hard sell but necessary.

Donor fatigue

Aaj News host Sidra Iqbal asked Kugelman to compare the current calamity with that of 2010, on which he co-edited a book ‘Empty Bellies, Broken Dreams’.

He said there were similarities between the two in terms of the immediacy of the response from the international community. “But the big difference—and this is a very troubling difference—is that the response was much larger in 2010,” he said.

There have not been as many pledges of assistance for several reasons. “[For example] in 2010, the US was in Afghanistan fighting a war so it was easy for it to deploy military helicopters to evacuate stranded people.”

He argued that there are other humanitarian crises right now: Ukraine, Afghanistan, Yemen. “So I think donor fatigue is much more of an issue now that it was in 2010,” he said.

To top it off, the global economy has been experiencing major shocks because of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. “So this all means that the environment, unfortunately, is not as favourable for such a large scale international response to these floods,” he said.

Govt responses

“No government, no matter how powerful, wealthy, or good it might have been at ecological governance could have prevented these types of floods,” he said. The floods were triggered by rains. “No government can prevent rain from falling, and no government can prevent early monsoons,” Kugelman said.

However, in previous decades a number of Pakistani governments have not taken the steps that could have reduced the most serious consequences of these floods and other major weather events like them. “There should have been more efforts to regulate construction along rivers and encroachments.”

He highlighted the high rate of deforestation in Pakistan, adding that while it has slowed a bit in recent years, it still remains a major problem. “Once you remove all these trees then you remove the natural bulwarks to prevent the spread of floodwaters. I would also argue that there has been better efforts to ensure that water infrastructure was better repaired and better miainted,” he continued. If it weren’t so dilapidated, it could have prevents things from getting this bad.

He hastened to add that even the most foolproof water infrastructure could not have stopped these horrific floods. “But at least if they were better maintained and in better working order, at least I think that something could have been done to reduce the most catastrophic and serious implications of these floods.”

Climate reparations

When asked whether the West owes Pakistan climate change reparations considering that climate experts in Pakistan and aboard have pointed out that Pakistan’s contribution to carbon emissions is less than one percent but Pakistan tends to be among the the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate impact, he said reparations was a delicate term.

“I think the countries that have had polluting polices for so long, do owe it to Pakistan and other climate vulnerable countries that have not contributed to global warming that way,” he said.

“I think that debate should take place but in terms of how the world can provide more long-term climate adaptation assistance to Pakistan. It’s a realistic and important goal to focus on.”

He added it was likely that international assistance would end soon along with a reduction in global media coverage of the crisis.

“Pakistan needs long term help. There needs to be a conversation about how the US, China and other western countries can help Pakistan become more climate resilient: in terms of technology for early warning systems and resources for foolproof building materials for catastrophic weather conditions.”

He added that while talks about climate reparations are justified, longer-term international climate adaption and mitigation assistance for Pakistan was a more practical solution.

Emission targets

Speaking about India’s 2070 net zero emissions target, Kugelman said that it was a significant development even though it might be unrealistic. “For a long time, India made the argument that since the industrialized developed world has polluted for so long, they have a right to do so as well, and there’s no need for them to reduce emissions just because the rest of the world wants them to.”