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Few demographic groups were more important to President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory than Catholics.
While Catholic voters typically split nearly evenly, data shows Trump secured between 55% and 59% of their vote — potentially the strongest showing for any presidential candidate in decades.
Just over a year later, Trump is in open disagreement with the pope.
This time, analysts say, the fallout could be more significant.
Trump went on to win the 2016 election after a brief clash with Pope Francis, but his current dispute with Pope Leo XIV appears more sustained, CNN says in an analysis.
On Sunday night, Trump lashed out at Pope Leo’s criticism of the Iran war in a lengthy social media post, in which he:
A member of Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission, Bishop Robert Barron, described the remarks as “entirely inappropriate and disrespectful,” saying the president “owes the Pope an apology.”
Trump then escalated the controversy further by posting an apparently AI-generated image showing himself in a Christ-like figure healing a sick person.
The image was widely criticised, including by some Trump supporters, who called it blasphemous.
Trump later deleted the post and said he believed it showed him as a doctor, which critics disputed.
“I don’t know too many doctors who have glowing hands,” Father James Martin, a Jesuit priest, told CNN.
The current dispute echoes an earlier episode during the 2016 presidential campaign.
At the time, as Trump surged toward the Republican nomination, he briefly clashed with Pope Francis over immigration policy.
Francis, preparing a visit to the US-Mexico border, criticised border wall proposals, suggesting that focusing on “walls rather than bridges” was “not Christian.”
Trump responded by calling the remarks “disgraceful” and accusing the pope of being overly political.
He also claimed Francis would have preferred Trump as president if the Vatican were ever threatened by Daesh.
Although the exchange drew significant attention, it quickly faded, with Trump later softening his tone and describing Francis as a “wonderful guy.”
Analysts say the current dispute appears more prolonged and less likely to fade quickly.
While Trump has deleted the controversial image, neither side has indicated a willingness to de-escalate.
Pope Leo has taken a more direct approach than his predecessor, repeatedly criticising Trump on immigration and foreign policy.
Speaking to reporters aboard the papal plane, Leo said he had “no fear of the Trump administration” and would continue his religious mission.
Trump, meanwhile, has doubled down, refusing to apologise.
“No, because Pope Leo said things that are wrong,” he said, adding that the pope had been “very much against” his position on Iran. “He’s very weak on crime and other things. I’m just responding.”
The controversy has also been fuelled by Trump’s AI-generated post, which critics say crossed a line for many Catholics and Christians.
The post came shortly after Trump’s spiritual adviser, Paula White-Cain, publicly compared him to Jesus Christ at a White House event.
Some conservative commentators, including Erick Erickson, said the episode risked alienating Christian supporters who have remained loyal to Trump through previous controversies.
The fact that Pope Leo is the first American pope adds another dimension, with analysts noting his likely influence among US Catholics.
Polling suggests the pope is highly popular in the United States, while Trump’s approval ratings remain comparatively low.
Catholic voters were a key factor in Trump’s 2024 win, and data from the Pew Research Centre indicates they have remained relatively steady in their support compared with other religious groups.
While it remains unclear whether the dispute will significantly shift political dynamics, analysts say the scale and duration of the clash could make it more consequential than past tensions between Trump and the Vatican.
