Strait of Hormuz control could decide outcome of Iran war

Published 03 Apr, 2026 02:58pm 2 min read

Control of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, has emerged as a central strategic objective in the ongoing conflict between Iran and a US–Israel coalition, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The narrow waterway, a critical route for nearly 20% of global seaborne oil and gas, has become a key strategic lever.

Since the outbreak of hostilities following the US–Israel offensive in late February, commercial shipping through the strait has slowed dramatically, increasing Iran’s ability to influence regional and global energy flows.

Iran has signalled it may impose restrictions or conditions on ships passing through the strait, a move that could affect trade and international relations.

Experts cited by the Wall Street Journal note that Iran’s legal authority to regulate the passage is limited under international law, adding a layer of geopolitical tension.

“To the Iranians, the Strait of Hormuz now matters more than the nuclear program. The nuclear program was symbolic, but didn’t provide them with any deterrence,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and former senior State Department official who has been involved in informal discussions with Iranian representatives.

“Now, the only reason why they are surviving this war is because of the Strait. The Iranian thinking is that, at the end, the strait must remain under their control because it is their only deterrence and only source of revenue.”

The disruption has forced Gulf producers to explore alternative routes for energy exports, while US policymakers weigh options for reopening the strait without triggering wider escalation.

“Trump has finally achieved his dream of regime change—but in the region’s maritime regime. The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you: It will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran,” said the parliament commission’s chief, Ebrahim Azizi.

Analysts warn that extended Iranian control could shift the balance of influence over global energy markets, regardless of the conflict’s ultimate outcome.

“In this bizarre era of maritime protection money, shipowners will risk their ship if they don’t pay Iran—but if they pay Iran, they risk their future in the global financial system,” said Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at the City University of London. “What the Iranians are asking for is not just a transit fee but a loyalty test. It’s a test that no commercial entity can hope to pass.”

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