James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is expected to surpass $1 billion by this Sunday, overtaking Lilo & Stitch to become the third-highest-grossing film of 2025.

To reach the #2 spot behind Zootopia 2, which has earned over $1.5 billion, the film will need an additional $600 million or more.

Analysts say it is likely to cross $1.5 billion, with final totals potentially reaching $1.8 billion or more, depending on box office holds, especially during the second weekend of January.

Despite claims that the film is “failing,” industry experts note that earning over $1 billion is a significant success.

Much discussion about budgets and profits is often exaggerated, sometimes to encourage repeat viewings.

The Avatar franchise has earned $6.2 billion across three films, with the first two generating over $5 billion.

Cameron filmed the second and third instalments simultaneously, improving efficiency in visual effects and post-production.

Reported budgets are often inflated in public reports due to Hollywood accounting practices.

Even if box office growth slows, Disney has multiple revenue streams—merchandising, home entertainment, and more—that will produce substantial profits.

Cancelling future sequels remains extremely unlikely.

Factors affecting Fire and Ash’s early totals include fewer pre-Christmas days in theatres, longer runtime limiting daily screenings, and fans waiting for optimal viewing conditions.

Disney could hold three of the top four global box office spots for 2025 by the end of the year.

If the film approaches $2 billion, Cameron’s career box office could reach $10.7 billion, potentially surpassing Steven Spielberg as the highest-grossing filmmaker ever.

Marvel’s Avengers sequels may challenge that in the future, though their releases are still years away.

Even a $1.5 billion finish would confirm Fire and Ash as a major hit, with the franchise showing no signs of slowing and further sequels likely in the coming years.