Pakistan’s semi-final hopes hang by a thread after a six-wicket defeat to India in the group stage match of the Champions Trophy on Sunday.

The defeat, which came at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, left Pakistan at the bottom of Group A, with their hopes now relying on a series of complex results to defend their title.

On February 19, Pakistan suffered a 60-run loss to New Zealand in their tournament opener. In the blockbuster contest, Pakistan batted first and was bowled out for 241 in 49.4 overs.

Saud Shakeel top-scored with 62, while skipper Mohammad Rizwan contributed 46 runs. India, led by Virat Kohli’s 51st ODI century, comfortably chased down the target with 45 balls to spare, sealing the victory.

For Pakistan, Shaheen Shah Afridi claimed two wickets but struggled with an economy rate of 9.25 while Abrar Ahmed and Khushdil Shah picked up one wicket each.

But analyst Naseem Rajput took a jab at the Pakistan team’s chances in the tournament, saying: “Only then we can progress in the tournament if God forbid, there are situations where India and New Zealand will have to return under any circumstances.”

Rajput is a guest on the Aaj News’ sports programme Kuch Cricket Ho Jaye. The special show began on February 19 and would continue till the event culminates on March 9.

“Pakistan’s chances are very bleak,” he said and expressed concerns about the national team’s ability to beat Bangladesh considering the form. “The most difficult task will be how can we defeat Bangladesh.”

What does Pakistan need to qualify?

While Pakistan’s fate is no longer in their hands, there is still a slim chance for qualification. To remain in contention for the semi-finals, the Green Shirts must secure a win over Bangladesh on Monday (today). But they also need the Black Caps to lose their next matches.

They also need Bangladesh to win against New Zealand and India to defeat Santner XI in their last match of the group stage.

If New Zealand wins, Pakistan will be eliminated from the tournament. In this scenario, India and New Zealand will advance to the semi-finals while Bangladesh will also be eliminated.

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If Bangladesh defeat New Zealand and Pakistan managed to beat Bangladesh, then the equation would depend on the result of the India-New Zealand match on March 2. Should India win, three teams New Zealand, Bangladesh, and Pakistan will end with two points each.

The team with the better net run rate will secure the final semi-final spot alongside India.

Pakistan’s semi-final aspirations are still alive, but they will need a series of favourable outcomes to progress to the next stage of the competition.