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Monday, April 21, 2025  
22 Shawwal 1446  

What happens next in Syria: 3 possible scenarios

Hussein explained that downfall of Syrian army was marked by chaos and security breaches
A poster depicting Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is placed on a building in Damascus, after last week’s rebel seizure of Aleppo marked the biggest offensive for years, Syria December 5, 2024. REUTERS
A poster depicting Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is placed on a building in Damascus, after last week’s rebel seizure of Aleppo marked the biggest offensive for years, Syria December 5, 2024. REUTERS

An Egyptian military analyst and advisor at the Command and Staff College, Haitham Hussein emphasized that Iran cannot overlook Syria when it comes to its security interests.

In an interview with Al Arabiya.net and Al Hadath, he noted that Iran has heavily invested in Syria, providing crucial financial and technical support to establish the Syrian military. A collapse of this military would pose a substantial threat to Iran.

Hussein explained that the recent downfall of the Syrian army was marked by chaos and security breaches. In response to threats from Israeli forces, Iran had recalled many of its advisors and leaders from the country.

After separating Syrian militias from groups like Fatemiyoun, Zainabiyoun, and Hezbollah, these fighters were redeployed to the southern Lebanon front. Reports indicate that following its involvement in the Ukraine conflict, Russia has begun withdrawing its military personnel and equipment from Syria, further weakening the Syrian army’s position.

Possible future scenarios include the opposition seizing control of Damascus to establish a radical Islamic government, or the Syrian government defeating the opposition and restoring the situation seen in 2016. Another scenario suggests a division of Syria into three smaller states: a central government in Damascus, an Islamic government in Aleppo, and a Kurdish government in other areas.

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Syrian rebels capture Hama in major offensive against Assad

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Israel missiles hit arms depot in Syria’s Aleppo airport: monitor

Syrian rebels achieved a significant victory on Thursday by capturing the city of Hama, marking a swift advance across northern Syria that poses a serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said Assad left on a private plane that took off from Damascus international airport at 10:00 pm (1900 GMT) on Saturday night, without specifying where he headed.

After that, the army and security forces pulled out of the airport, with commercial flights already suspended earlier, added the Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources on the ground.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that over 800 individuals have died in the recent clashes, with more than 300,000 civilians displaced.

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