The National Assembly and Senate are set to convene to consider a potential constitutional amendment. The 26th Amendment is expected to be put to a vote on October 17. The vote’s outcome hinges on a complex number game within the National Assembly.

The government requires 224 votes to pass the amendment. The ruling coalition currently holds 215 seats. Crucially, the support of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), with 8 votes, would bring the government’s total to 223. Sources claim the coalition also anticipates support from four independent members.

The government’s current seat breakdown includes: 111 Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), 70 Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), 22 Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), five Q-League, and four Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party members. The National Party, Zia League, and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) each hold one seat.

The opposition includes approximately eight independent members supporting the PTI, 80 members of the Sunni Ittehad Council, and one member each from BNP-Mengal, MWM, and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party.

The government faces uncertainty regarding two votes: those of PML-N’s Adeel Bazzai and Qaumi League’s Ilyas Muhammad. Both members have references pending before the National Assembly Speaker.

Despite this uncertainty, the government expresses confidence in its ability to easily pass the constitutional amendment in the lower house.