Pakistan’s consumer price index (CPI) in May rose 11.8% from a year earlier, data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Monday, the lowest reading in 30 months and below the finance ministry’s projections.

The lowest reading comes a week before the central bank meets to review the key rate which has remained at a historic high of 22% for seven straight policy meetings.

Pakistan has been beset by inflation above 20% since May 2022. Last year in May, inflation jumped as high as 38% as the country navigated reforms as part of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme. However, inflation has since slowed down.

Month-on-month consumer prices fell 3.2%, the biggest such drop in more than two years.

In its monthly economic report released last week, Pakistan’s finance ministry said it expected inflation to hover between 13.5% and 14.5% in May and ease to 12.5% to 13.5% by June 2024.

“The inflation outlook for May 2024 continues on a downward trajectory, attributed to elevated inflation levels (in the) previous year and improvements in (the) domestic supply chain of perishable items, staple food like wheat and (a) reduction in transportation costs,” the report said.

The actual readings have come in even lower due to a sharper dip in food prices, said Amreen Soorani, head of research at JS Global Capital.

Month-on-month

Urban:

The items whose prices saw the increase on a month-on-month (MoM) basis included Potatoes (14.73%), Meat (4.06%), Beans (3.91%), Eggs (1.60%), Vegetable Ghee (1.27%), Cooking Oil (1.26%), Dental Services (14.64%), Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee (5.48%), Transport Services (3.35%), Hospital Services (2.73%) and Text Books (2.33%).

The items whose prices decreased the most over the previous month included Tomatoes (51.23%), Onions (51.15%), Chicken (35.28%), Wheat (22.17%), Wheat Flour (20.12%), Fresh Fruits (8.06%), Liquified Hydrocarbons (9.45%), Electricity Charges (4.50%), Motor Fuel (3.18%) and Communication Apparatus (2.35%).

Rural:

The items whose prices saw the increase on a MoM basis included Potatoes (22.49%), Meat (2.18%), Milk Powder (1.52%), Beverages (1.37%), Pulse Gram (1.08%), Education (2.76%), Plastic Products (2.07%) and Marriage Hall Charges (2.01%).

The items whose prices decreased the most over the previous month included Tomatoes (57.91%), Onions (47.97%), Chicken (37.57%), Wheat Flour (18.80%), Wheat (18.14%), Fresh Vegetables (17.96%), Liquified Hydrocarbons (7.84%), Electricity Charges (4.50%) and Motor Fuels (3.41%).

Year-on-year

Urban:

Item prices that increased on a year-on-year (YoY) basis included Gas Charges (318.74%), Electricity Charges (58.78%), Transport Services (32.28%), Onions (86.64%), Tomatoes (55.46%), Condiments and Spices (39.17%), Beans (30.89%) and Fish (29.64%).

Item prices that decreased on a YoY basis included Wheat (29.06%), Wheat Flour (28.48%), Chicken (22.30%), Cooking Oil (19.39%), Fresh Fruits (18.20%), Vegetable Ghee (16.51pc), Mustard Oil (15.14%), Eggs (8.50%) and Liquified Hydrocarbons (11.18%).

Rural:

Item prices that increased on a YoY basis included Onions (82.08%), Tomatoes (73.95%), Beans (38.06%), Fresh Vegetables (28.22%), Fish (24.29%), Electricity Charges (58.78%), Transport Services (48.59%), Water Supply (31.65%) and Education (24.19%).

Item prices that decreased on a YoY basis included : Wheat Flour (28.38%), Wheat (25.82%), Chicken (25.30%), Fresh Fruits (22.40%) and Liquified Hydrocarbons (3.99%).