SINGAPORE: CBOT soybean May contract may break a support at $14.60-1/2 per bushel and fall into the $14.48-1/2 to $14.53-1/4 range. The contract has broken a support at $14.68-1/4.

It is expected to drop to $14.53-1/4, the 61.8% retracement.

In the meantime, the drop is controlled by a set of projection levels on a wave c, which is expected to travel to $14.48-1/2.

This wave was disrupted by the immediate support of $14.60-1/2, which triggered a moderate bounce that may end around $14.74-1/4.

A break above $14.74-1/4 could lead to a gain to $14.80-1/4. On the daily chart, the contract is riding on a wave C from $15.31-1/2, which is expected to travel to $14.42, its 61.8% projection level.

This wave observes closely a set of retracements on the uptrend from $13.80 to $15.49-3/4 as well. Based on this retracement analysis, the contract may fall to $14.44-3/4, near $14.42.

The bounce triggered by the support of $14.64-3/4 could be brief and weak, in view of the current strong bearish momentum of the downtrend.