At the moment the estimates for the weekend’s two top films are dead even: a box office rarity.  Both Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs are claiming estimates of $36.2 million, a figure that is slightly embarrassing for one film and a near miracle for the other.

One week ago Cowboys and Aliens was the obvious choice for a number one finish with as much as $50 million whileThe Smurfs seemed destined for the type of “Judy Moody,” also-ran commentary that I routinely tack on to the end of my column.  Instead it seems probable that The Smurfs will wind up the weekend winner by the time actual figures are revealed on Monday thanks to Sunday’s family audience uptick.

There has been talk of bringing The Smurf to the big screen for at least a decade.  The little blue gnomes were a marketing juggernaut in the 1980s and continued to be big overseas even longer. The Smurfs movie truly got off the ground following the success of Fox’s Alvin and the Chipmunks films, both of which earned over $200 million at the domestic box office.

Still, few outside of Sony foresaw an outsized success for The Smurfs. For starters, both Alvin films had December release dates: prime time for family films.  Add in the recent trend of diminishing returns for both talking critter pics and 3D releases and it looked like the $110 million The Smurfs might break even at best or wind up a box office punchline at worst.

Cowboys still has some room for growth for the month of August if it can withstand the August 5th release of Rise of the Planet of the Apes, the last remaining tent pole type release of the summer.