India is likely to see below-average monsoon rainfall in July after logging its fifth-driest June since records ​began in 1901, the weather department said on Tuesday, raising concerns ‌over farm output and economic growth.

The monsoon delivers about 70% of annual rains to replenish crucial water sources in the nearly $4-trillion economy, where almost half of farmland lacks irrigation, and ​about half the population earns its livelihood from farming.

July monsoon rainfall ​is forecast to be below 94% of the long-period average, said ⁠Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

July rainfall is crucial because ​it accounts for the bulk of the four-month monsoon season’s precipitation, and most ​farmers sow summer crops during the month.

The IMD had forecast June monsoon rainfall at less than 92% of the long-period average (LPA), but rainfall was 39.8% below average, making it the fifth-driest ​June since records began in 1901.

The El Niño weather pattern, which contributed ​to below-average rainfall in June, is expected to strengthen in the coming months and could weigh ‌on monsoon rains, Mohapatra said.

El Niño is a climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts global weather patterns and can bring drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia and other ​regions.

In the past, ​India has experienced ⁠below-average rainfall during most El Niño years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit ​the export of some grains.

“If rainfall picks up over the ​next few ⁠days, as forecast by the weather department, there will be enough soil moisture for farmers to begin sowing summer crops,” said a Mumbai-based dealer at a global commodities ⁠trading ​house.

Indian farmers have fallen behind in planting summer crops, ​including rice, cotton, corn and soybeans, as a slow start to the monsoon has meant below average ​rainfall so far.