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President Donald Trump has been weighing whether to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island, an operation analysts say could be achieved quickly, but leave U.S. troops in great peril and prolong rather than shorten the war.
Kharg Island sits 16 miles (26 km) from Iran’s coast in the northern end of the Gulf, about 300 miles (483 km) northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
It lies in waters deep enough to enable the docking of tankers that are too large to approach the Iranian mainland’s shallow coastal waters.
The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and seizing it would give the United States the ability to severely disrupt Iran’s energy trade, placing enormous pressure on Tehran’s economy.
Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
US forces carried out strikes against Kharg in mid-March. Trump said they “totally obliterated” all military targets there and said they could next target oil infrastructure.
US officials have told Reuters the administration is weighing whether to send ground forces to the island.
Two contingents of Marines could arrive in the region around the end of the month, and sources say the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of airborne troops as well to give Trump more options if he were to order a ground assault.
US troops could likely seize the island relatively quickly, but that would not necessarily lead to a quick and decisive end to the war Trump has been seeking, given its unpopularity at home ahead of the November midterm elections.
“A seizure and occupation of Kharg Island is more likely to expand and extend the war than it is to deliver any sort of decisive victory,” Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies wrote,
They said U.S. troops would be exposed to missile and drone attacks, including, potentially, small but lethal camera-wielding “first-person view drones” that are already used by the millions in Ukraine.
“Upon any successful strikes, the Iranian regime would be expected to release videos of those attacks online, using the graphic deaths of American service members as propaganda,” they said.
Trump would also hope that taking Kharg Island would force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and provide him with potential leverage in future negotiations, analysts say.
However, Tehran could opt to lay more mines to target shipping, including floating mines deployed from the coast, which would make the region even more hazardous for shipping, which has already been significantly disrupted by the conflict.
A former commander of the US Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com last week that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Kharg Island, they would require logistical backup that would need protection as well.
Votel said the troops would be very vulnerable and doubted that taking the island would provide any particular tactical advantage.
It would be “kind of an odd thing to do … But we could certainly do it if we had to,” Votel said.
