A study published in the medical journal Lancet estimates that the death toll from Israel’s recent war on Gaza could exceed 186,000 people. This figure represents nearly 8% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million.
According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Israeli military assault began in October. However, the Lancet study warns that the actual death toll is likely much higher due to the extensive damage to health facilities, food distribution networks, and other critical infrastructure.
The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees has also faced significant funding cuts, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
UN data indicates that as of February, over 10,000 bodies were believed to be buried under the rubble, with 35% of Gaza’s buildings destroyed.
The Lancet study states that in recent conflicts, indirect deaths can range from 3 to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Using a conservative estimate of 4 indirect deaths for every direct death, the study suggests “it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable” to the conflict.
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The study also addresses claims of data fabrication by Gaza’s Health Ministry, stating that Israeli intelligence, the UN, and the World Health Organization all find such accusations “implausible.”
The study emphasizes that documenting the true scale of the crisis is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war, which is also a legal requirement.
