As the nation gears up for electing its representatives in the 12th general election – slated for February 8, the discussions intensify around the possible government formation in the Centre.
After the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is out of the election race as a party after the Supreme Court verdict on its election symbol, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remain the two major parties to fight it out to elect their prime minister.
But no political party is expected to secure enough general seats of the National Assembly, ie, 134 seats to elect their prime minister. They probably will have to form a coalition government with one or more parties.
Also, the role of independents is the most talked about aspect of Thursday’s election as the PTI has backed hundreds of independent candidates. Dozens of them are expected to come out victorious.
Aaj News chalked out the possible scenarios in case these parties need to ally with one or more parties to form a government.
You can explore options by clicking on the party names tab in the Aaj News interactive graphic above. A single click will exclude that party from the graphical item and a second click will bring it back.
The PML-N will need to form a coalition government with the PPP in case the former secures around 110 seats and the latter ends up with around 70 seats.
The two parties’ seats will make for the required seats needed to form a government.
However, with PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari saying that he can no longer go with his former ally in the previous government, the PML-N will have to woo independent candidates who are likely to win around 50 constituencies in this scenario.
The second possibility is the formation of a coalition government with the Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the MQM-P with an expected 10 seats each and Jahangir Tareen’s IPP with around four NA members along with a few independents.
On the other hand, the PPP could elect its prime minister if the party secures more seats. In this scenario, the party bags 95 NA seats and PML-N ends up with 85 then the two parties can form a coalition government led by the PPP.
The PPP, with its 95 National Assembly members, will have to gain the support of 50 independents if it decides against forming a coalition government with the PML-N.
The other scenario, resulting in a PPP-led government, is to form a coalition government with JUI-F, MQM-P, IPP, and some independents.
The role of independent candidates, mostly backed by the PTI is expected to play a crucial role in the formation of the federal government.
In a scenario where as many as 100 independents are victorious in the election, with the PPP bagging 70 seats and the PML-N finishing with 60, this group of representatives will be positioned to decide the future of the government formation.
The independents could join the PPP or the PML-N. They will also have the option to join a party with minimum seats in the NA and make a government with MQM-P, JUI-F, and other parties in the coalition.
A mixed government is among the possibilities in case the independent candidates win around 115 seats in the election.
They could form a mixed government with the PPP and the PML-N or a government that will have Jamaat-e-Islami and PTI-Parliamentarians with 10 NA members each and other parties with a couple of seats in the NA.
