African leaders prepared on Monday for a new bid to resolve the crisis in Ivory Coast as embattled Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo arrived here for an African Union summit that many expect will pass the thorny matter on to the United Nations.
A day ahead of a heads of state summit among members of the AU Peace and Security Council at the pan-African body's headquarters in Addis Ababa, Gbagbo met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, officials said.
The president arrived in the Ethiopian capital late on Sunday and was to be followed by Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny to participate in a summit expected to be attended by 12 other African leaders, they said.
They are to discuss a proposal reached by west African leaders earlier this month that broadly call for the extension of Gbagbo's and Banny's terms in office for a year.
The final AU recommendations are to be forwarded to the UN Security Council, which is to meet on October 25 to decide details of a new plan for Ivory Coast that has been split in two since a failed coup attempt in late 2002.
Gbagbo was elected in 2000 for a five-year mandate. Elections were set for last October, but the UN extended Gbagbo's tenure for a year while empowering the prime minister to oversee a transitional period until presidential and general elections.
Over the weekend, the United Nations announced it would postpone planned elections for up to a year and predicted a new resolution would be passed in a fresh bid to secure peace.
"This time the new delay absolutely must serve as a way to emerge from the crisis," Gerard Stoudman, top UN representative in Ivory Coast, told the organisation's radio station in Abidjan. "Something must happen in 2007 ... We can't remain in the status quo."
The AU meeting is expected to endorse the recent conclusion by the West Africa's ECOWAS bloc that the current UN resolution on Ivory Coast is a failure.
Resolution 1633 extended Gbagbo's mandate in office for one year, and stipulated that presidential elections must take place by October 31.
But a year later, with Gbagbo still in place, the country is as divided as ever and the rebels -- along with pro-government militias -- have yet to disarm in line with the resolution.
Moreover there appears to be little international consensus on how to overcome the roadblocks to peace -- which arguably include the Ivorian leader.
Gbagbo can count on support from Angola, Libya, Rwanda, South Africa and Zimbabwe, several diplomats say. But others -- including Burkina Faso, Gabon and Senegal -- side with France and other Gbagbo critics.
The latter group wants a new UN resolution to reinforce the powers of Banny, who was appointed by the international community in December to advance the peace process -- to the arguable detriment of Gbagbo's interests.
Those divisions will force the latest AU meeting to merely reaffirm the main principles of UN resolution 1633, several diplomats speculated, without weighing in on controversial power-sharing questions.
"The supporters and opponents of Mr Gbagbo are going to neutralise each other," one European diplomat said.
"The AU doesn't want to hear talk of suspending Mr Gbagbo's powers -- that is suspending the Ivorian constitution -- out of solidarity among the heads of state. Moreover, a number of countries believe that Mr Banny hasn't used all the powers given to him by 1633."
As a result, it will be up to the UN to settle on an acceptable compromise between the rival stances -- but not necessarily a way out of the impasse, several diplomats said.
The AU was also expected to discuss the future of mediation efforts by South African President Thabo Mbeki. ECOWAS is pressing for Mbeki's departure, diplomats say, judging him too close to Gbagbo to fulfil his function.
Despite calls for calm from UN peacekeepers in Ivory Coast, opponents of Gbagbo rallied more than 10,000 demonstrators in a stadium on Sunday, brandishing banners reading "Gbagbo must be chased from power."
The UN force said in a statement it had received information that demonstrations were planned in Abidjan in the next few days.
It appealed to "all sides to abstain from any acts of provocation that could cause unnecessary clashes and thus endanger the security situation."
Ahead of the Addis Ababa session, "it is imperative to preserve a climate of peace and calm in the country," it said.