Uzair Younus, who is the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, has taken out some interesting points from the 120-page IMF report on Pakistan He thinks the report is “sobering”.

“Pakistan’s economy [is] expected to be in flux for the next 2-3 years, at least, and faces significant risks,” he started with this statement in his long Twitter thread on Tuesday.

According to Younus, the gross external financing requirements were over $80 billion in the next three years.

To meet these requirements, he stressed that successive governments must pursue prudent policies that mean “relief” and “growth” in the traditional sense were a tough ask.

The IMF states that “elevated gross financing needs continue to pose high risks to debt sustainability, particularly as fiscal and reserve buffers have been depleted.” and that “the overall risk of sovereign stress is high…”

Younus, who also hosts the podcast Pakistonomy, stated that the IMF also has a scathing view of the State Bank of Pakistan.

He shared a chart that showed the negative growth.

The energy sector was in a “full-blown crisis”, with “cumulative circular debt at Rs5 trillion”, of which half is the power sector.

“Partially available data suggest that the CD stock in the gas sector…is now almost on par with that in the power sector.”

The interest rates might go up as the international lender stressed that the central bank would need to “continue its tightening cycle to re-anchor expectations given that inflationary pressures are expected to persist” for the next 12 months or so.

“Lots of risks and vulnerabilities that will require management, underpinned by a prudent macro framework,” he said, “whoever is in power for next 2-3 years has their work cut out in ISB / GHQ.”