Pakistan's economic growth is likely to slip below a revised target of 6 percent for the 200708 fiscal year, mainly because of lower manufacturing growth and farm output, a government official said on Tuesday.
"Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 5.78 percent," said a Finance Ministry official who declined to be identified as he is not authorised to talk to the media.
The projected GDP growth rate, calculated at a meeting of the National Accounts Committee on Monday, is based on data for the first nine months of the fiscal year to March and estimated figures for the remaining three months.
Pakistan had set a 7.2 percent growth target for gross domestic product (GDP) at the beginning of the July-June fiscal year but revised that to 6 percent this year, citing weakness in manufacturing and farm-sector growth.
The fiscal year ends on June 30 and the government is expected to announce its budget for 200809 early next month.
"Agriculture grew by merely 1.49 percent against an original target of 4.8 percent, mainly due to less-than-expected growth in major crops, wheat and cotton," the official said.
Pakistan's wheat output this year is expected to be 21.8 million tonnes against a target of 24 million. Early this year the government cut the target for cotton output to 11.6 million bales from a revised 12.8 million and an original target of 14.14 million.
Growth in large-scale manufacturing is estimated to drop to 4.84 percent, compared with a target of 12.5 percent.
The service sector was likely to post 8.16 percent growth thanks to a robust 17 percent expansion in the banking and insurance sector, the official said.
The government is due to give official growth figures and targets for next year later this month.
The economy, which has averaged annual growth of 7 percent over the past four years, is under pressure from expanding fiscal and trade deficits, a weakening rupee and inflation, which touched a 30-year high of 17.21 percent in April.
A coalition government that assumed power nearly two months ago after February elections blames the previous administration for "mismanaging" the economy.