A high-powered panel named by the US Congress to assess policy options in Iraq is weighing recommendations that could produce another blow to President George W. Bush's 'stay-the-course' policy in Iraq.
The work of the Iraq Study Group has sparked intense speculation and media attention because it is led by a close Bush associate and former secretary of state, James Baker, a political heavyweight whose judgment will be difficult to ignore.
"Jim Baker does not get involved with anything that doesn't have a big impact," said Lawrence Korb, a defence analyst with the Center for American Progress.
The panel's findings will be watched closely and are likely to carry the same weight as the influential commission that investigated the attacks of September 11, 2001, Korb said.
A source associated with the Iraq Study Group confirmed media reports that options under consideration include a phased withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq and an opening of diplomatic channels with Iran and Syria.
"Those two options are among many scenarios being contemplated," the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.
The phased withdrawal option, entitled "Redeploy and Contain," reportedly would have US troops gradually moved outside Iraq and deployed at nearby bases in the region.
Another option entitled "Stability First," emphasising stability rather than building democracy, would call for the US to open up diplomatic channels to Syria and Iran, two states that Washington has identified as sponsors of terrorism.
Both steps would represent a major break with the president's policies. Bush previously has insisted US troops would not withdraw until Iraq can defend and govern itself and has been reluctant so far to engage in direct diplomacy with Syria and Iran.
An option for dividing the country into highly autonomous regions for the Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite communities also was under examination but the final report had yet to be written, the source associated with the panel said.
"The group has accepted nothing and it's excluded nothing," the source said.
Baker has said the 10-member panel, which was formed in March, will deliver its report to the president and Congress sometime after the November 7 mid-term elections in a bid to avoid bitter partisan divisions and promote consensus.
While the Bush administration's current approach probably would be rejected, analysts said it was also unlikely the panel would urge an immediate pullout favoured by some lawmakers and anti-war activists.
"Look for important and second order changes," said another source assisting the commission.
Korb said he expected the bipartisan commission of Washington heavyweights from previous administrations to call for a gradual withdrawal that would force the Iraqi leadership to take responsibility for security.
"Basically what they're going to say is the current course isn't working, here are a couple of options that we suggest," he said.
"As long as the Iraqis think we're going to be around forever, there's no reason for them to do what they need to do," said Korb, who has called for a similar approach.
Baker himself warned last week in an interview with PBS television that there was no quick fix for Iraq.
"There is just not one silver bullet that will cure all the problems that we are currently experiencing in Iraq," said Baker, who served as the top US diplomat for Bush's father, former president George H.W. Bush.
The co-chair of the panel, Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic lawmaker who was also the co-chair of the 911 commission, acknowledged that much was riding on the Iraq Study Group's findings.
"We all recognise the difficulty of the problem," Hamilton told the same PBS program. "And certainly, in the last couple of weeks we have begun to realise how much the country is looking to us for some kind of an approach to the Iraqi problem."