Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.32%, to $71.89 a barrel at 1140 GMT after ​settling 0.45% higher on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.49 a barrel, down 20 cents, ​or 0.29%. There was no settlement for WTI on Friday as US markets were ⁠closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

Both contracts were little changed last week after mostly falling over ​the past few weeks, as investors kept a close eye on talks between the US and Iran over the fate ​of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while keeping tabs on the recovery in Gulf oil exports.

“The downward move is still influenced by earlier stranded tankers managing to exit the Gulf, resulting in an increase in oil on water,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

The Organization ​of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to further increase output targets ​by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases for June and July.

However, the increase has remained largely on ‌paper ⁠because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which closed the strait to tanker traffic for key OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, capping their output.

“They are selling into a falling market, offering little hope of an imminent price recovery,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. “However, lower oil prices will undoubtedly stimulate demand further down the line.”

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more ​than 3 million barrels ⁠from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volume remained 40% below pre-war levels, data showed.

“We now expect global oil demand to contract by 1.5 million barrels ​per day in 2026, reflecting a sharper-than-expected downturn in Q2, when year-on-year declines could ​reach 4 million ⁠bpd based on preliminary data,” ANZ said.

“However, we expect demand losses to moderate in the second half of the year as supply improves and some deferred consumption returns,” the bank added.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has sold about 16 million ⁠barrels of ​Emirati crude at wider discounts in a fifth spot tender issued since ​June, trade sources said, underscoring a surge in spot supply.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military said on Monday it struck oil refineries in Russia’s Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions ​overnight.