An indictment of the 94-year-old revolutionary icon would mark a major escalation in the pressure campaign against Cuba by the Trump regime, which has described the island’s government as corrupt and incompetent as it pushes for change.

Cuba has yet to comment directly on the threat of indictment but Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez expressed defiance on ​Friday.

“Despite the (US) embargo, sanctions and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development,” Rodriguez ​said in a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers.

Reuters interviewed Cubans in Havana who said an indictment would only turn the ⁠clock back on negotiations with the US, further deepening the diplomatic crisis between the two nations.

Sonia Torres, 59, a Havana schoolteacher, saw a prosecution of ​Raúl Castro, who for decades oversaw the country’s military and then served as president from 2008 to 2018, as an affront to Cuban pride at a time ​of crisis.

“Cubans must always keep moving forward,” she said.

“If they try to process Raul, we’ll defend Cuba with sticks and rocks if we have to.”

Tense relations between the neighbouring countries date back to Fidel Castro’s 1959 communist revolution.

Castro struck an alliance with the Soviet Union, then seized US-citizen owned businesses and properties, stoking decades of tensions between the two nations.

The Trump administration ​has laid siege to Cuba since January, enforcing a de facto fuel blockade, issuing threats of military action and ramping up sanctions that have forced ​foreign businesses — including Canadian miner Sherritt International — to flee.

But a Castro indictment would mark a watershed moment, said Peter Kornbluh, an author of a history of secret negotiations between ‌Cuba and ⁠the United States, who said an indictment would likely represent “the diplomatic endpoint” to negotiations.

“This was an ultimatum: It’s do or die time,” Kornbluh said. “(The indictment) has created a fig leaf of legality for any military operations to seize or assassinate Raúl Castro.”

The United States has previously used criminal cases against foreign political figures to justify military actions, and Trump has threatened that Cuba “is next” after his regime in January kidnapped Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

His government called the military raid ​a “law enforcement operation” to bring Maduro to ​New York to face criminal ⁠charges.

The younger Castro is still viewed as the island’s most influential living leader and symbol of the Cuban revolution, although he no longer holds a formal government role.

Brothers to the rescue

A potential Castro indictment, the US Department of Justice ​sources said, ties back to Cuba’s 1996 shootdown of two planes operated by the humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue.

Cuba ​at the time ⁠defended the attack as a legitimate defence of its airspace, but the US position was later backed up by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, which concluded the shootdown took place over international waters.

Fidel Castro said Cuba’s military had acted on “standing orders” to down planes entering Cuban airspace.

He said brother Raul, then defence minister, did ⁠not give ​a specific order to shoot the planes.

Havana resident Eliecer Diaz, 45, said then, as now, Cuba ​had to defend itself in the face of US aggression.

“That’s an invasion … and you have to defend yourself,” said Havana resident Eliecer Diaz, 45.

“If they are now thinking of prosecuting (Raul Castro), I ​think that is wrong.”