As the US Memorial Day weekend approaches and with it peak summer driving season, surging pump prices pose a major political risk for President ​Donald Trump and his Republican Party as they campaign for midterm elections in November.

Without de-escalation in ​the Middle East, analysts say US motor fuel prices could rise past prior records.

The national ⁠average price of gasoline stood at $4.52 a gallon as of 5.20pm ET on Tuesday, GasBuddy data showed.

Prices ​breached $4 in late March, a level last reached in August 2022 after Russia’s military attack on Ukraine.

California had the highest ​average pump price in the country at $6.14 a gallon, according to GasBuddy data.

Gasoline prices have surged along with a rally in crude oil futures on fears of prolonged disruption in the Gulf.

The global Brent crude benchmark has jumped 58% since the war began.

“The ​Strait of Hormuz shutdown continues to slowly push oil and gasoline prices higher, but we’ve also seen refining issues ​that have enhanced some of those increases,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.

Last week, BP’s 440,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, experienced ‌a ⁠brief power outage that caused one of its processing units to be shut down.

Operations have since been restored, the company said.

“If the Strait of Hormuz does not open, I would expect that gas prices this summer would probably stay above $4.50 a gallon,” De Haan said.

Before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, about 20% of global ​oil supplies passed through the ​Strait daily.

Morgan Stanley said ⁠US gasoline inventories were drawing faster than the normal seasonal pattern.

Its base case pointed to stocks falling below 200 million barrels by late August, near historical summer lows.

US ​gasoline stocks fell over 6 million barrels last week and stood at 222.3 million ​barrels by April ⁠24, the lowest since December, more than 2 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average, EIA data showed.

Gasoline demand hit 8.95 million barrels on a four-week average basis, up 1% from the same time last year, the data showed.

Morgan ⁠Stanley added ​that demand has held up despite $4-plus pump prices.

“It is not driving ​the draws, but it’s also not soft enough to slow the supply-driven stock draws.”

US gasoline futures were trading around $3.64 a gallon on Tuesday, hovering ​at their highest level since 2022.