According to the analysis, the idea is straightforward.

By choking off oil exports and restricting vital imports, Washington hopes to trigger an economic collapse severe enough to compel Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

US officials point to inflation, job losses and shortages inside Iran as early signs that the strategy is working, and Trump has signalled he is prepared to sustain the blockade.

The approach offers a way to escalate pressure without risking US ground casualties or returning to inconclusive airstrikes, the report suggests.

It also seeks to regain leverage after Iran disrupted global markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Yet the assumption that US economic dominance guarantees success has already been challenged by a war that has inflicted heavy damage on Iran without delivering a decisive outcome.

Two key questions now loom. One is how long Americans — and Republicans facing midterm elections — can endure rising fuel prices and inflation linked to the conflict.

The other is whether US policymakers are accurately judging how Iran’s leadership will respond.

Washington has often misread the region by assuming economic pain will produce political capitulation.

There are signs of mounting strain in Iran.

Reports describe rising unemployment, soaring food prices and energy shortages, while officials have urged consumption cuts.

Some US intelligence assessments suggest the economy could face severe stress within weeks.

Analysts such as Alex Vatanka say the blockade could spark unrest, but warn that meaningful political pressure might take months — and would depend on sustained protests and cracks within the regime.

Time may not be on Trump’s side.

His approval ratings are low, and prolonged disruption to global energy supplies risks further domestic backlash.

His personal stake in projecting strength also raises the pressure to deliver results.

Even so, there’s no guarantee it would work.

Iran has spent decades weathering heavy sanctions, survived a brutal war in the 1980s that devastated the country, and repeatedly faced waves of unrest at home.

Each time, instead of backing down, the system has tended to tighten its grip and push through the pressure.

Its leadership has long framed resistance to the US as central to its identity.

Critics like Trita Parsi argue Washington has repeatedly overestimated the effectiveness of pressure campaigns, searching for a decisive “breaking point” that rarely materialises.

Trump is betting this time is different — that economic collapse will succeed where military force has not.

But if Iran again absorbs the blows and refuses to yield, the blockade could reinforce a long-standing pattern: that even overwhelming US power struggles to bend the Islamic Republic to its will.