Global energy supplies are reeling from the war’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, usually a transit ​route for 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Europe has not ​yet faced supply shortages, but is grappling with soaring oil and gas ⁠prices, and airports have warned that the first jet fuel shortages could hit within weeks.

In a ​closed-door meeting with EU countries’ ambassadors on Wednesday, the European Commission said it was considering two ​main scenarios, diplomats with knowledge of the talks said.

A Commission spokesperson declined to comment.

In a scenario where the ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran holds, and the US blockade of the strait is ​lifted, oil and gas flows would recover in a few months, and prices should decline, ​the Commission said.

Diesel and jet fuel prices would ease later, by the end of summer, while the ‌global ⁠market for LNG would remain tightened until 2030, due to damage to infrastructure in Qatar, it added.

But if tensions continue, energy markets would face a prolonged supply shock and extreme price spikes, with ripple effects across industries’ supply chains. Continued oil supply disruption would increasingly force “demand destruction” - ​meaning reduced fuel ​use, the Commission said.

In ⁠this scenario, Europe could struggle to fill its gas storage ahead of winter. Localised shortages of jet fuel are also possible, the ​Commission said, according to the diplomats.

Europe’s reliance on oil and gas imports ​has left ⁠it exposed to spiralling global prices - even though its top suppliers are the US, Norway and other producers outside the Middle East.

The Commission is drafting proposals to attempt to offset the ⁠energy fallout. ​A draft, previously reported by Reuters, shows plans to cut ​electricity taxes and seek to scale up clean technologies faster, to slash Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels and protect ​the bloc from future oil and gas shocks.