The opposition-backed “No” bloc will secure around 54% of the vote against 46% for the government’s “Yes” camp, state broadcaster RAI said, based on an analysis of early counting patterns.

The Mediaset TV group, generally pro-government, projected the same outcome.

Turnout was close to 60% — much higher than ​expected following an ill-tempered campaign that revealed a deep, mutual animosity between the right-wing coalition and Italy’s judiciary, which ​will leave lasting scars.

If the initial vote projections are right, defeat might mark a turning point for Meloni, ⁠stripping her of the aura of being a winner in the eyes of the Italian electorate after four years of ​victories in local and national polls.

By contrast, the result may re-energise the fragmented centre-left, giving the two largest opposition parties, the Democratic ​Party and 5-Star Movement, the impetus to forge a broad alliance to take on Meloni and her allies.

Meloni plans to stay

While Meloni has firmly ruled out resigning over the result, avoiding the fate of former premier Matteo Renzi, whose tenure ended abruptly after ​a failed 2016 constitutional referendum, a loss will nonetheless leave her vulnerable, analysts said.

The timing of the contest proved challenging for ​Meloni, with Italians harbouring a clear dislike of her ally, US President Donald Trump, and fearful that the US-Israeli war on Iran would ‌drive up ⁠already high domestic power prices.

Pollsters said in the run-up to the ballot that many who voted “No” would likely do so to register dissatisfaction with Meloni’s administration rather than engaging with the substance of the highly technical reform.

The referendum proposed separating the careers of judges and public prosecutors, and splitting the magistrates’ self-governing body, the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM), into two sections, with members chosen ​by lot rather than elected.

The ​government argued the changes were ⁠needed to make the judiciary more accountable for its mistakes, remove potential bias in the system against defendants and prevent politically motivated factions from doling out top jobs to supporters.

By the ​government’s own admission, the changes would not have addressed one of the main problems afflicting ​Italy — a notoriously ⁠slow legal system that weighs on the economy.

The magistrates’ union and opposition parties said the reform would have eroded judicial autonomy, giving Meloni de facto control over the magistrature — something she denied.

Victory in the referendum would have likely emboldened the prime minister to press ahead ⁠with other ​significant constitutional changes, such as making the post of prime minister directly ​elected.

The likely rejection by voters leaves her weakened domestically as she grapples with a stagnant economy and complex international headwinds.

It could also weaken her standing ​in Europe, where previously she was seen as unexpectedly resilient and enduring.