Myanmar has been ravaged by conflict since the military staged a coup against a civilian government in 2021 and detained its leader, Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, unleashing a civil war that engulfed swathes of the country of 51 million people.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, winner of the last two elections in landslides, has been dissolved along with dozens of other anti-junta parties for failing to register, while rebel groups refused to take part.

The United Nations, many Western countries and human rights groups say the election is a ploy to formalise junta rule through civilian proxies, and the contest is neither free, fair nor credible without a meaningful opposition.

‘Victory for the people’

The military insists the vote has public backing and is being conducted without coercion.

It has sought to put a positive spin on the election after a first phase on December 28 had a turnout of just 52%.

“This is not just a victory for the government, but a victory for the people, an achievement for those who desire democracy and peace,” its spokesperson Zaw Min Tun told reporters on Sunday.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has travelled widely to promote the election, hailing it a success and urging people to vote.

He is expected to play a central role in the next administration, but sidestepped a question recently about his political ambitions.

A resident of Latha Township in the biggest city, Yangon, who did not vote but witnessed activity at a local polling station, said many people turned out early, worried about repercussions if they did not vote and about being stigmatised if they did.

“They are afraid something will happen if they don’t vote, and if they vote, they are afraid others will find out,” he said on condition of anonymity.

Army-backed party marching towards victory

The military-allied Union Solidarity and Development Party looks set to win big after securing 88% of the lower house seats contested in the first phase.

The party, created by the military back in 2010 to serve as its political vehicle, is stacked with retired soldiers.

“The USDP is on track for a landslide victory, which is hardly a surprise given the extent to which the playing field was tilted in its favour.

This included the removal of any serious rivals and a set of laws designed to stifle opposition to the polls,“ said Richard Horsey, Senior Myanmar Adviser for Crisis Group.

A 42-year-old Yangon resident told Reuters he cast his ballot to avoid repercussions, but did not choose USDP.

“I voted for another party. I don’t even remember the name,” he said.

Transition promised

A final voting round will take place on January 25.

The military has said the election will bring political stability to Myanmar, which is facing one of the most serious humanitarian crises in Asia, with thousands killed in conflict and, according to the United Nations, 3.6 million displaced.

However, analysts warn that the junta’s attempt to form a stable administration amid raging conflict is fraught with risk and any military-controlled government is unlikely to gain broad international recognition.

Junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said a new government would be formed in April that would be accepted overseas, leading to sanctions being eased and a return of foreign investment.

“I believe after the election, restrictions will decrease, and international relations will become more open and visible,” he said.