Officials now fear that the floodwaters will enter Sindh in the coming days, raising the threat of a worsening crisis.

The disaster follows weeks of heavy rains and water inflows from India, where Punjab province is also struggling with high-level flooding.

Authorities in Pakistan said India’s release of 1.2 to 1.3 million cusecs of water may soon reach the Guddu Barrage, intensifying the situation downstream.

Punjab Information Minister Azma Bukhari told a press conference in Lahore on Tuesday that a massive wave is currently passing through Head Trimmu on the Chenab River, with the floodwaters now moving towards Head Muhammad Wala.

According to Irfan Ali Kathia, Director General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), the Chenab flood is expected to reach Multan by Tuesday evening, while high-level flooding is anticipated in the Sutlej River.

PDMA has warned that the deluge is likely to enter Sindh between September 4 and 5.

Authorities say extensive relief operations are underway. Over 900,000 people and more than 600,000 livestock have already been shifted to safer areas.

Tent cities have been set up near affected communities to house displaced families. Currently, more than 3,000 rescue workers and 800 boats are operating in 32 flood-hit districts of Punjab.

A PDMA report confirmed that so far, 3,243 villages and settlements have been inundated, displacing at least 2,452,185 people. Over 40 deaths have been reported in flood-related incidents during the past week.

Flood routes and river system

Floodwaters from India’s five rivers — Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Jhelum, and Chenab — converge at Panjnad, where they merge into the Panjnad River before joining the Indus at Kot Mithan after a 71-kilometre journey.

From there, the waters flow through Guddu Barrage, Sukkur Barrage, and Kotri, travelling 3,180 kilometres before reaching the Arabian Sea.

Sindh on alert

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Chairman Lt. Gen. Inam Haider has already warned that a major flood wave could hit Sindh.

He told reporters in Islamabad that pressure remains high in the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, and projections show that a massive inflow could reach Guddu and Sukkur barrages between September 4 and 5.

At Sukkur Barrage, he cautioned, inflows may range from a minimum of 700,000–800,000 cusecs to as high as 1.2–1.3 million cusecs.

Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said the provincial government’s top priority is to protect human lives, followed by livestock.

He noted that 550,000 cusecs had already passed safely through Sukkur and Kotri barrages, but warned of serious risks if India-released water reaches 1.2–1.3 million cusecs at Guddu Barrage.