The federal government’s measures to curb smuggling at transit corridors have led to a substantial drop in Afghan imports from Pakistan. In the fiscal year 2023-24, amounting to a decrease of $4.21 billion.

The volume of Afghan transit trade during this period was $2.89 billion, down from $7.95 billion in the previous fiscal year (2022-23). This decline continued into the first month of the new fiscal year, with July 2024 seeing an 83% year-on-year drop in trade, falling to just $9.8 million from $583 million in July 2023.

Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) Central Vice President Ahmad Jawad from 2010 to 2020, the trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan declined sharply from $1.5-$2 billion to just $870 million in 2020. However, the bilateral trade saw a modest recovery in 2023, reaching around $1.8 billion, driven by increased Afghan exports, particularly coal, to Pakistan.

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Despite this small rebound, the trade balance has been heavily skewed in favor of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s imports from Afghanistan increased by 62.7% during this period, while its exports declined drastically by 200%. This situation has been driven by fundamental strategic, security, and political factors.